Thinking Trap #1 – Probability Overestimation

Probability overestimation.  So aside from this sounding some high falutin’ clinical term, it essentially is the overestimation of a particular outcome that is inevitable to occur. It is often aligned with negative thought patterns, but positive overestimation can also be problematic.

As Rod Sterling from the old (and I do mean old) tv show Twilight Zone use to say, “Picture this if you will” – an example of this occurring in society now.  The negative outlook some have of the vaccine.  And in particular those who believe they may get a ‘V’ in their heads if they take the vaccine.  So some think this is a probability.  Therefore, it is overestimated that they believe those who take it will get this ‘V’, such as a mark of the beast of sorts.  Some think it is based on a tracking device (to go along with the alleged chips that are being shot into us).  Some believe it is a side effect.

So let’s see where this can go.  There is a probability (V in your head), based on very sketchy non – scientific sources.  Also, in here are valid concerns regarding what is the safety of the vaccine.  Ultimately since I do not want a V, and I have not looked at or believed credible scientific sources, I believe the probability of something truly negative happening to me is projected on most experiences of people who elect to take the vaccine.  And in the immortal words of that great philosopher Fred G. Sanford, “Elizabeth I’m coming to join you honey, with a V in my head!”

So what to do??  Now the way forward on this scenario and probability thinking is to a) examine evidence.  Meaning, how many people do I see with a V in their heads months after taking the vaccine?  Beyond the typical side effects (in first few days) which are communicated by health care professionals proactively or if asked, do I see most people getting sicker?  And if you not trusting of what you hear in media beyond Facebook, then let’s stick with those you know and who they know they have had the vaccine.  Then, b) allow for more alternatives.  Yes a negative thing can happen, but also does not mean everyone will have the same experience.  Always know that you can begin again with new information, then you can make a new decision.  It does NOT mean you were stupid, just that we looked so hard at one possibility.

As for the chip thing, well they put that in our phones since we use them when going #2 and even while having sex.  Since more folks have a phone than will take the vaccine, logically, that could be more of where Big Brother resides.

Alright, chin up, eyes forward, mind open – and let’s get it started!